25 Comments
Mar 2, 2022Liked by Michael Tracey

A rereading of WW1 suggests that the diplomates in Europe were actually trying to deescalate the situation contrary to conventional historical interpretation; things spiraled out of control and war happened despite. Here we are escalating intentionally hoping that will bring a better outcome. Will we only learn from history after we are left sitting by a fire in front of our cave.

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Mar 2, 2022Liked by Michael Tracey

Thanks for staying on top of this, Michael. Lord knows corporate media won't do the job. I'm as concerned as you are that we could blunder into a world war. I can hardly believe I'm saying so. Too many "leaders" are acting as moronicly as those that bumbled their way into WW1.

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Mar 2, 2022Liked by Michael Tracey

My immediate reaction was, “They can’t be that stu—“

You talked about guardrails. Do we even know what the escalation rules are anymore? Many years ago I took a nuclear disarmament course that involved meeting with SALT negotiators and ACDA directors. Our deterrence strategy was as meticulously detailed and planned out as a chapter of Escoffier. The idea was to automate our response as much as possible so that any incursion of Soviet tanks into, say, West Berlin would launch a juggernaut that ended unstoppably in the annihilation of the Russian population even if they retaliated. The idea was to stop the Russians from starting anything because they knew how it would end.

To our chagrin we learned after the fall of the USSR that they didn’t fully appreciate our beautifully constructed fences but they seemed to work well enough anyway.

Now I have no idea what the roadmap is. A fighter launched from Poland downs a MiG and…then what? Does Russia use battlefield nukes? If so how do we respond? Militarily? With nukes? At what target? With conventional weapons? Doesn’t that end in nukes? Or will they skip the tactical approach and just nuke Warsaw? So then do we nuke Moscow? Or do nothing? Sanction the flow of adoptable puppies? What’s left?

I mean, back in the day we recognized an ICBM takes only half an hour to cross the earth and had plans in place that could be executed at a moment’s notice. If anything happened today, we don’t even understand what the options are, much less have the wisdom to choose among them.

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The other day I saw someone complaining on Twitter about Jeremy Renner trending as people were pushing for him to portray Zelensky in a movie about Ukraine. "How can you be that shallow?" the person wondered. I'm thinking, "Look around. We think the world is a movie, a video game, and no real consequences will hit home." Here is my problem: we are nearly sixty years out from the Vietnam War, the last "tough" war. We now treat war as a football game and we don't think anyone will die, or if they die, it will be a Hollywood movie where everyone wakes up after the director yells "Cut." That's not good, not good at all.

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I'm growing increasingly worried with every new salvo of sanctions and military aid. The social media hype train has long since left the station and it seems that every institution public and private is trying as hard as possible to collapse the Russian economy, isolate its regime, and directly aid its enemies.

A few days ago I might have said this was proportionate and deserved, but it's becoming clearer that most of the people calling most fervently for ever-more punishing actions against Russia don't have any grasp of either (a) the true civilization-ending power of nuclear weapons or (b) the likely chains of events that would lead to their use. They're just caught up in the mob.

I can't remember the last time I was this scared. Nobody is talking about exit strategies to de-escalate the situation or allow the Russian regime to walk things back to some version of the status quo ante. Since that's what's necessary to avert a very painful death for (almost) all of us, I'm starting to think that the whole world has gone mad. Not just Putin or his underlings.

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Great article. Never thought about Ukraine fighters potentially using Polish airstrips. Hope this is a “nothing” burger. Good luck on your trip

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Incredible that the Ukrainian post mentions the laughable meme hoax that is the "ghost of Kiev". Perhaps they should also refer to the "shark of Kiev" or the "wolf of Kiev" (someone's yellow lab holding a Ukrainian flag in its mouth).

Sometimes the Clown World people go overboard. In this instance they have a case.

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Mar 3, 2022·edited Mar 3, 2022

We can't say for sure if taking NATO status for Ukraine off the table would have prevented the invasion, because it was not attempted. Everyone says Ukraine is not going to join NATO, so it's not really much of a concession to give it up, and yet it's what Russia really wants.

I think the offer of Ukrainian neutrality should be made NOW by Ukraine, by Europe or by the US during any talks that take place, in exchange for an agreement by Russia to get out now and stay out. This delay in the invasion is the opportunity for that negotiation.

At this point Putin is behaving like a cornered animal, a "madman" with nukes who could lash out. I don't think Putin is bluffing in regards to nuclear war. He was not expected to invade Ukraine but he did it despite the costs to his own people and to Russian dignity. Russia defeated nazi Germany, killing 1.1 million German soldiers on the "eastern front" whereas the rest of the allies killed only 0.5 million on all the other fronts put together https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_casualties_in_World_War_II I think we owe them one. Throw the wild animal a bone, one that has no meat on it and is of use to nobody. The bone is no NATO membership for Ukraine. Who cares? I sure as fuck don't care if Ukraine is in NATO.

If that offer is rejected then Putin should get what he deserves but I don't want to have a nuclear war and then be saying later we should have made the offer. It's not like buying a used car, these are serious negotiations and serious consequences for humanity. We can't really afford to walk away from the table.

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founding

Great reporting

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"We've arrived at a stage when avoiding escalation to a Russia-NATO conflict is going to take luck or effort."

I guess effort is a bit of a longshot to the bozos in charge of wars and weapons. That's what civilian oversight is about, because if it was left to the military brass or neocons to prevent nuclear war we would have all been vaporized a long time ago. Generals and necons need the careful stewardship, guidance and wisdom of Biden, Harris, Blinken, the professor, Mary-Ann and the rest.

It seems that if someone wants to "accidentally" start a war it's not difficult and the "fog of war" is the built in excuse for such things. Thanks, Michael, for trying to delay or prevent WWII!, it seems to have fallen on your shoulders.

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Mar 2, 2022·edited Mar 2, 2022

Thank you and -- a very refreshing and longer-term view:

Has Putin Miscalculated? | With Pepe Escobar | Part 1 of 2 – March 1, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8syVHWRv_k

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